Vol. 7, Issue 4 (2019)
Comparison of extended range weather forecast with observed rainfall over Western zone of Tamil Nadu
Author(s): Harinarayanan MN, Manivannan V, GA Dheebakaran and Kokilavani S
Abstract: This study compares the skill of an extended range prediction system to forecast northeast monsoon season in the Western zone of Tamil Nadu. The extended range weather forecast were observed and compared for their reliability and profitability for Northeast monsoon season from the period 2009 to 2015 on seasonal scale. Comparison between the observed Northeast monsoon rainfall data and predicted data were carried out on the basis of per cent deviation, RMSE, bias, regression co-efficient and index of agreement. From this study the predicted values are deviated from the observed values in a range of -7.14 to 127.24 percentages. The forecast showed RMSE value of 1.57, Bias value of 113.7 and r2 value of 0.28 which means greater difference in rainfall amount. The overall index of agreement for the forecast was 0.63 which shows average performance of the forecast. In brief, out of seven years, the forecast for two years were correct (2009 and 2011) and another two years were partially correct (2010 and 2014) remaining three years were incorrect (2012, 2013 and 2015).
Pages: 581-583 | 323 Views 73 Downloads
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How to cite this article:
Harinarayanan MN, Manivannan V, GA Dheebakaran, Kokilavani S. Comparison of extended range weather forecast with observed rainfall over Western zone of Tamil Nadu. Int J Chem Stud 2019;7(4):581-583.
